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BioVeL workflows were used for studying climate impacts on native fauna in the Baltic sea

A research group at the Center for Marine Evolutionary Biology (CEMEB) and the EU funded Biodiversity Virtual e-Laboratory (BioVeL) have used BioVeL workflows to study present and future distribution patterns of endemic Baltic Sea species that may be threatened by climate change. The study uses ecological niche modelling techniques to study potential distribution for a food web consisting of a guild of meso-grazers (Idotea spp.), their host algae (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus radicans) and their fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus). The study shows that a north-eastern shift of I. balthica and I. chelipes into the distribution area of the endemic alga F. radicans in the Baltic Sea may result in increased grazing pressure and extinction risk for the species.

Read the article in full here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12395/abstract


Keywords

Climate change; Baltic Sea; ecological niche modelling; e-Science; food web; Fucus radicans ; Fucus vesiculosus ; Gasterosteus aculeatus ; Idotea ; workflows

Abstract

Aim

The Baltic Sea is one of the world's largest semi-enclosed brackish water bodies characterized by many special features, including endemic species that may be particularly threatened by climate change. We mapped potential distribution patterns under present and future conditions for a community with three trophic levels. We analysed climate-induced changes in the species' distribution patterns and examined possible consequences for the chosen food web.

Location

Baltic Sea and northern Europe.

Methods

We developed two open-source workflow-based analytical tools: one for ecological niche modelling and another for raster layer comparison to compute the extent and intensity of change in species' potential distributions. Individual ecological niche models were generated under present conditions and then projected into a future climate change scenario (2050) for a food web consisting of a guild of meso-grazers (Idotea spp.), their host algae (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus radicans) and their fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature and museum collections, together with five environmental layers at a resolution of 5 and 30 arc-minutes.

Results

Habitat suitability for Idotea balthica and Idotea chelipes in the Baltic Sea seems to be mostly determined by temperature and ice cover rather than by salinity. 2050 predictions for all modelled species show a northern/north-eastern shift in the Baltic Sea. The distribution ranges for Idotea granulosa and G. aculeatus are predicted to become patchier in the Baltic than in the rest of northern Europe, where the species will gain more suitable habitats.

Main conclusions

For the Baltic Sea, climate-induced changes resulted in a gain of suitable habitats for F. vesiculosus, I. chelipes and I. balthica, whereas lower habitat suitability was predicted for I. granulosa, F. radicans and G. aculeatus. The predicted north-eastern shift of I. balthica and I. chelipes into the distribution area of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea may result in increased grazing pressure. Such additional threats to isolated Baltic populations can lead to a higher extinction risk for the species, especially as climate changes are likely to be very rapid.


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News

19 February 2015

At the final review of the project by the EC, one of the reviewers said: “Incredible work done with a community that is not unified. Remarkable work. It opens for new development in a near future. Hope for success. Good project. Happy that you have been financed three plus years ago.”

Read all about the project and its results in the Project Final Report or read the Executive Summary only.